Predicting asthma attacks in primary care: protocol for developing a machine learning-based prediction model

INTRODUCTION: Asthma is a long-term condition with rapid onset worsening of symptoms ('attacks') which can be unpredictable and may prove fatal. Models predicting asthma attacks require high sensitivity to minimise mortality risk, and high specificity to avoid unnecessary prescribing of preventative medications that carry an associated risk of adverse events. We aim to create a risk score to predict asthma attacks in primary care using a statistical learning approach trained on routinely collected electronic health record data. // METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will employ machine-learning classifiers (naïve Bayes, support vector machines, and random forests) to create an asthma attack risk prediction model, using the Asthma Learning Health System (ALHS) study patient registry comprising 500 000 individuals across 75 Scottish general practices, with linked longitudinal primary care prescribing records, primary care Read codes, accident and emergency records, hospital admissions and deaths. Models will be compared on a partition of the dataset reserved for validation, and the final model will be tested in both an unseen partition of the derivation dataset and an external dataset from the Seasonal Influenza Vaccination Effectiveness II (SIVE II) study. // ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Permissions for the ALHS project were obtained from the South East Scotland Research Ethics Committee 02 [16/SS/0130] and the Public Benefit and Privacy Panel for Health and Social Care (1516-0489). Permissions for the SIVE II project were obtained from the Privacy Advisory Committee (National Services NHS Scotland) [68/14] and the National Research Ethics Committee West Midlands-Edgbaston [15/WM/0035]. The subsequent research paper will be submitted for publication to a peer-reviewed journal and code scripts used for all components of the data cleaning, compiling, and analysis will be made available in the open source GitHub website (https://github.com/hollytibble)

Cultural Adaptation and Linguistic Validation of the Beliefs about Medicines Questionnaire in Malaysia

BACKGROUND: Low rate of adherence was found strongly associated with patients' beliefs across the studies about chronic diseases with hypertension. A crucial move is needed to bridge the gap between appropriate assessment tools and local hypertensive patients' medication adherence. OBJECTIVE: To produce a translated version in Malay language of Beliefs about Medicines Questionnaire (BMQ) that was "conceptually equivalent" to the original English version for use in local clinical practice and research. METHODS: The forward translation process was conducted by two independent professional translators and back translation was done by two other independent translators. A reliability analysis was conducted on 238 conveniently selected hypertensive patients. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was used to assess test-retest reliability for the randomly selected 40 patients in a period of 2 weeks. Discriminant validity was tested through Necessity-Concerns differential, BMQ subscales, and other parameters. RESULTS: The overall Cronbach alpha for the internal consistency was good (0.860). The subscales of the BMQ demonstrated adequate internal consistency, with Cronbach alpha value of 0.759 for Specific-Necessity, 0.762 for Specific Concern, 0.624 for General-Overuse, and 0.756 for General-Harm. The ICC was excellent (0.922). Discriminant validity revealed that BMQ Specific-Necessity score was significantly inversely correlated with the systolic blood pressure level. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure levels (P = 0.038; P = 0.05) were reported to be significantly correlated with the Necessity-Concerns differential, with Necessity score equal or exceeding Concerns score. CONCLUSIONS: The Malay-translated version of BMQ is a reliable and valid tool to assess patient belief about medication, especially medication adherence among the hypertensive patients in Malaysia

A Data-Driven Typology of Asthma Medication Adherence using Cluster Analysis

Asthma preventer medication non-adherence is strongly associated with poor asthma control. One-dimensional measures of adherence may ignore clinically important patterns of medication-taking behavior. We sought to construct a data-driven multi-dimensional typology of medication non-adherence in children with asthma. We analyzed data from an intervention study of electronic inhaler monitoring devices, comprising 211 patients yielding 35,161 person-days of data. Five adherence measures were extracted: the percentage of doses taken, the percentage of days on which zero doses were taken, the percentage of days on which both doses were taken, the number of treatment intermissions per 100 study days, and the duration of treatment intermissions per 100 study days. We applied principal component analysis on the measures and subsequently applied k-means to determine cluster membership. Decision trees identified the measure that could predict cluster assignment with the highest accuracy, increasing interpretability and increasing clinical utility. We demonstrate the use of adherence measures towards a three-group categorization of medication non-adherence, which succinctly describes the diversity of patient medication taking patterns in asthma. The percentage of prescribed doses taken during the study contributed to the prediction of cluster assignment most accurately (84% in out-of-sample data)

Pharmacist-led adherence support in general practice: a qualitative interview study of adults with asthma.

OBJECTIVES: The National Health Service (NHS) in England recently introduced general practice pharmacists (GPPs) to provide medication-focused support to both patients and the general practice team. This healthcare model may benefit people with asthma, who currently receive suboptimal care and demonstrate low medication adherence. This study aimed to explore the perspectives of adults with asthma on the potential for pharmacist-led adherence support delivered in general practice, with a focus on how these perspectives are formed. DESIGN AND SETTING: The study was conducted in the United Kingdom (UK) utilising a qualitative interview methodology. Participants were invited to partake in a telephone-based semistructured interview, followed by an online questionnaire for demographic details and asthma history. Qualitative data were analysed using thematic analysis. PARTICIPANTS: Participants (n=17) were adults with asthma in the UK with a prescription for an inhaled corticosteroid. Participants did not have previous experience with GPPs and were asked to provide their views on a proposed GPP-led service. RESULTS: Participant perspectives of GPPs were determined by trust in pharmacists, perceived gaps in asthma care and the perceived strain on the NHS. Trust was based on pharmacists' perceived clinical competency, established over time, and gauged through a 'benchmarking' process. GPP's fit in current asthma care was assessed based on potential role overlap with other healthcare professionals, continuity of care and medication-related support needs. Participants navigated the NHS based on a perceived hierarchy of healthcare professionals (general practitioners on top, nurses, then pharmacists), and this influenced their perspectives of GPPs. CONCLUSION: While the GPP scheme shows promise based on the perspectives of people with asthma, the identified barriers to optimal patient engagement and service implementation will need to be addressed for the service to be effective.The research was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care North Thames at Barts Health NHS Trust

Observations of discrete magnetosonic waves off the magnetic equator

Fast mode magnetosonic waves are typically confined close to the magnetic equator and exhibit harmonic structures at multiples of the local, equatorial proton cyclotron frequency. We report observations of magnetosonic waves well off the equator at geomagnetic latitudes from −16.5°to −17.9° and L shell ~2.7–4.6. The observed waves exhibit discrete spectral structures with multiple frequency spacings. The predominant frequency spacings are ~6 and 9 Hz, neither of which is equal to the local proton cyclotron frequency. Backward ray tracing simulations show that the feature of multiple frequency spacings is caused by propagation from two spatially narrow equatorial source regions located at L ≈ 4.2 and 3.7. The equatorial proton cyclotron frequencies at those two locations match the two observed frequency spacings. Our analysis provides the first observations of the harmonic nature of magnetosonic waves well away from the equatorial region and suggests that the propagation from multiple equatorial sources contributes to these off-equatorial magnetosonic emissions with varying frequency spacings

Crustacean remains from the Yuka mammoth raise questions about non-analogue freshwater communities in the Beringian region during the Pleistocene

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.Frozen permafrost Pleistocene mammal carcasses with soft tissue remains are subject to intensive study and help elucidate the palaeoenvironment where these animals lived. Here we present an inventory of the freshwater fauna and flora found in a sediment sample from the mummified Woolly Mammoth carcass found in August 2010, from the Oyogos Yar coast near the Kondratievo River in the Laptev Sea region, Sakha (Yakutia) Republic, NE Russia. Our study demonstrates that the waterbody where the carcass was buried could be characterized as a shallow pond or lake inhabited mainly by taxa which are present in this area today, but additionally by some branchiopod crustacean taxa currently absent or unusual in the region although they exist in the arid zone of Eurasia (steppes and semi-deserts). These findings suggest that some “non-analogue” crustacean communities co-existed with the “Mammoth fauna”. Our findings raise questions about the nature of the waterbodies that existed in Beringia during the MIS3 climatic optimum when the mammoth was alive

Generalised Compositional Theories and Diagrammatic Reasoning

This chapter provides an introduction to the use of diagrammatic language, or perhaps more accurately, diagrammatic calculus, in quantum information and quantum foundations. We illustrate the use of diagrammatic calculus in one particular case, namely the study of complementarity and non-locality, two fundamental concepts of quantum theory whose relationship we explore in later part of this chapter. The diagrammatic calculus that we are concerned with here is not merely an illustrative tool, but it has both (i) a conceptual physical backbone, which allows it to act as a foundation for diverse physical theories, and (ii) a genuine mathematical underpinning, permitting one to relate it to standard mathematical structures.Comment: To appear as a Springer book chapter chapter, edited by G. Chirabella, R. Spekken

Thermodynamics of charged and rotating black strings

We study thermodynamics of cylindrically symmetric black holes. Uncharged as well as charged and rotating objects have been discussed. We derive surface gravity and hence the Hawking temperature and entropy for all these cases. We correct some results in the literature and present new ones. It is seen that thermodynamically these black configurations behave differently from spherically symmetric objects

Ethnic differences in sedentary behaviour in 6–8-year-old children during school terms and school holidays: a mixed methods study

Background Sedentary behaviour (SB) in childhood is a major public health concern. Little is known about ethnic differences in SB during school and holiday weeks among White British (WB) and South Asian (SA) children, which this study aims to address through investigating inclinometer measured SB and exploring reasons for child engagement in SB. Methods A mixed methods study, comprising of a quantitative investigation with 160, 6–8 years old children and a qualitative study with a subsample of 18 children, six parents and eight teachers was undertaken. Children of WB and SA ethnicity in three schools were invited to wear inclinometers for seven school terms (summer/winter/spring) and seven holidays (winter/spring) days during July 2016–May 2017. Total SB, SB accumulated in bouts > 30 min and breaks in SB were explored using multivariate linear mixed effects models which adjusted for wear time, sex, deprivation, overweight status, season, term, weekday and school. Nine focus groups and two interviews were carried out using the Theoretical Domains Framework to explore SB perceptions among parents, teachers and children. Data were analysed using the Framework Approach. Results 104/160 children provided 836 valid days of data. Children spent on average eight hours of SB/day during term time and holidays, equating to 60% of their awake time, and had on average 111 SB breaks /day. SA children had 25 fewer SB breaks/ day when compared to WB (p < 0.001). Perceived reasons for engagement in SB included: boredom, enjoyment of screen activities (by children), parenting practices, curriculum pressures (by teachers), the need to sit down and learn, and child’s preference for screen activities (by parents). Conclusions Children spent 60% of their awake time being sedentary, regardless of ethnicity or school term. There were no significant ethnic differences for any of the SB outcomes except for breaks in SB. Interventions aimed at reducing SB should consider involving parents and teachers and should focus on increasing breaks in SB, especially for SA children, who are at a higher risk of cardio metabolic ill health

Mitigating slipping-related mortality from purse seine fisheries for small pelagic fish: case studies from European Atlantic waters

The release of unwanted catches (UWC) from purse seines, while the catch is still in the water, is known as “slipping”. Once thought to be a benign process, compared to discarding UWC overboard from the fishing vessel, it is now recognised that “slipping” can lead to significant mortality in the released fish if done inappropriately. In this chapter, we examine purse seining and slipping operations, and discuss what drives slipping and potential mitigation measures to reduce slipping mortality. We use three examples of purse seine fisheries for small pelagic species in the North-east Atlantic; from Norway, Portugal and Spain. The ideal solution (identifying and avoiding UWC before the net is set) requires the development of tools to enable fishers to better characterise target schools in terms of key selection criteria, e.g., with respect to species, individual size and catch biomass. Such tools are being developed, based primarily on hydro-acoustic technology. However, some UWC in purse seine catches are inevitable, and operational improvements in slipping practices have been shown to significantly reduce stress and mortality in the released UWC. We conclude with a discussion on the challenges currently facing the implementation of the European Union (EU) Landing Obligation with regards to minimising slipping related mortality.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio